Planning Scenarios — 2026 General Election
Floor Scenario
$5.5–6.0M
Reduced field / digital-only media
Minimum viable competitive presence
⭐ Base Scenario — This Document
$9.1–9.3M
Full field + five-track media program
Competitive statewide Senate operation
Ceiling Scenario
$10–15M
Full field + expanded media + NRSC surge
Supplemented by outside independent spend
Base Scenario Assumptions: Campaign raises $5.4M additional over the general election cycle (on top of $2.1M primary balance minus primary obligations) for a total direct campaign budget of ~$7.2M. NRSC and aligned PAC independent expenditure of $2–3M supplements the campaign buy in key markets beginning August 2026. Total competitive media environment in Illinois: $9–12M Tracy-side inclusive of outside spending. Pritzker-backed Stratton operation expected to outspend on media by 3–4:1 in Chicago DMA; Tracy's advantage is downstate and collar market efficiency.
Total Budget (Base)
$9,275K
April 2026 – November 3, 2026
Staff & Personnel
$4,200K
45% of total budget
Media & Communications
$3,125K
34% of total; incl. $800K reserve
Operations & Field
$1,025K
11% of total budget
Cash on Hand (Feb 25)
$1,795K
Candidate loan: $2.0M outstanding
GE Fundraising Target
$5.4M+
Direct raise needed April–October
§1 — Staff & Personnel $4,200,000
Position CategoryHeadcountAvg MonthlyMonths ActiveTotal
Senior Advisors & General Consultants3$16,6677$350,000
Kilduff, Peterson, Corbett (Cor Strategies)
Campaign Manager / Deputy CM1$8,5007$59,500
Communications Director1$7,5007$52,500
Field Director1$6,5007$45,500
Finance Director1$7,0007$49,000
Digital Director1$6,5007$45,500
Data Director / VAN Admin1$5,5006$33,000
Compliance Director1$5,0007$35,000
Scheduler1$4,5007$31,500
Media Director1$7,0006$42,000
National Fundraiser1$7,5006$45,000
Candidate Aide (Brady Wilson)1$4,0007$28,000
Regional Political Directors (10)10$5,0006$300,000
Western IL (Reis/Claymore), SE IL (Butler), + 8 hires
Law Enforcement & Ag Coordinators2$4,5005$45,000
Senior Field Organizers (20)20$3,5005$350,000
Field Organizers — Full Cohort (50)50$3,0004$600,000
Full 102-county presence by June 1
GOTV Surge Staff (temporary, Sep–Nov)40$2,5002$200,000
Volunteer & Canvass Coordinator1$4,0005$20,000
Payroll Taxes & Benefits (est. 12%)$289,000
SUBTOTAL — Staff & Personnel$2,720,000
Pollster / Survey Research (3–4 surveys)$150,000
Media Consultant Fee$120,000
Opposition Research Firm$85,000
Digital Consulting / Ad Tech$75,000
Legal / FEC Counsel (Fogarty)$75,000
Claymore Strategic Solutions Retainer$175,000
SUBTOTAL — Consultants & Outside Contracts$680,000
TOTAL — STAFF & PERSONNEL$4,200,000 45%
§2 — Operations & Field Infrastructure $1,025,000
Line ItemNotesAmount
Regional Office Rent & Utilities (5 offices)Springfield HQ + Peoria, Rockford, Metro East/Belleville, Chicago NW suburb$175,000
Office Equipment & SuppliesComputers, phones, furniture for regional buildout$50,000
VAN / VoteBuilder LicensingStatewide deployment; ILGOP coordinated rate$75,000
Predictive Modeling & DataVoter targeting model, persuasion/turnout universes$60,000
Relational Voter Contact ToolsPeer-to-peer texting, digital organizing platform$40,000
Volunteer & Canvass SuppliesDoor hangers, lit, walk packets, precinct maps, kits$200,000
GOTV Materials & Final PushMailers, lit drops, election day supplies$150,000
Candidate Travel & Advance102-county presence; air for statewide events$150,000
Event Production (rallies, town halls)Sound, staging, signage for 20+ major events$75,000
Coalition Program Events & MaterialsLaw enforcement, ag, veterans, faith outreach$275,000
TOTAL — OPERATIONS & FIELD$1,025,000 11%
§3 — Media & Communications $3,125,000

Campaign-funded media only. NRSC and aligned PAC independent expenditure ($2–3M projected) supplements but is not reflected here. Five planned tracks + one protected rapid response reserve.

Line ItemFormat / NotesAmount
MEDIA PRODUCTION
TV Spot Production — 5 Hero Spots:30 broadcast-quality; $85K each (Senate rate)$425,000
Spot 1: Don Tracy for All of Illinois (positive ID)
Spot 2: Bless Juliana's Heart (BJH contrast)
Spot 3: Don Tracy Bio (biographical)
Spot 4: Contrast / Persuasion (direct contrast)
Spot 5: Closing GOTV
Rapid Response Pre-Built Creative (2 variants)Gaming Board rebuttal + Trump rubber stamp rebuttal; 48-hr turnaround premium$150,000
Digital Cutdowns & Platform Versioning:15/:06 cuts for all 5 spots; Facebook, YouTube, CTV optimized$100,000
Radio Production (4 spots):60 downstate format; $20K each$80,000
Archival Footage & LicensingFor contrast/BJH spots; SAFE-T Act, F-bomb ad$45,000
Production Subtotal$800,000
PLANNED MEDIA BUY — FIVE TRACKS
TV / CTV Buy — Campaign FundedDownstate DMAs + Chicago DMA collar targeting; Lowest Unit Rate$900,000
Peoria, Rockford, Springfield, Champaign — primary markets
Chicago DMA collar targeting (DuPage, Lake, Will, NW Cook)
Radio — Downstate MarketsAM/FM downstate; cost-of-living audience targeting$250,000
Digital / Social / CTV ProgrammaticYouTube pre-roll, Meta, CTV streaming; voter file targeting$350,000
Direct Mail — 3 ProgramsPrimary contrast mail; collar ID; GOTV chase$175,000
Earned Media & Press OperationsRelease wire, media monitoring, press events$50,000
Planned Buy Subtotal$1,725,000
⚠ RAPID RESPONSE & CONTINGENCY RESERVEProtected. Triggers: (1) attack gaining tracking traction, (2) race tightens final 30 days → converts to closing buy. Decision: principal level only.$600,000
TOTAL — MEDIA & COMMUNICATIONS$3,125,000 34%
§4 — Fundraising, Compliance & G&A $650,000
Line ItemNotesAmount
Finance Events & Donor OperationsHost recruitment, event venues, catering, invitations$175,000
Digital Fundraising PlatformWinRed fees, email program, SMS fundraising$60,000
Donor Prospecting & Contact AppendiWave / DonorSearch / Aristotle vendor append for FEC data$75,000
Call Time OperationsDial sheets, call time management, NGP setup$40,000
FEC Compliance Software & ReportingNGP VAN, compliance software licensing$35,000
General & AdministrativeInsurance, banking, postage, miscellaneous$100,000
IT & Campaign TechnologyCampaign hub hosting (Cloudflare), software licenses$30,000
Headquarters Contingency ReserveUnplanned operational needs$135,000
TOTAL — FUNDRAISING, COMPLIANCE & G&A$650,000 7%
§5 — Budget Summary $9,000,000 – $9,300,000
CategoryAmount% of Budget
§1 — Staff & Personnel$4,200,00045%
§2 — Operations & Field Infrastructure$1,025,00011%
§3 — Media & Communications$3,125,00034%
Incl. $800K production, $1.725M planned buy, $600K reserve
§4 — Fundraising, Compliance & G&A$650,0007%
§3 Reserve (Rapid Response / Closing Conversion)(included above)protected
TOTAL BASE SCENARIO$9,000,000100%
Range: $9.0–$9.3M depending on NRSC coordination timing, field hiring pace, and reserve deployment. NRSC + aligned PAC independent expenditure of $2–3M additional is expected but not reflected here. Total Tracy-side media environment at ceiling: $12–15M.
§6 — Monthly Spending Cadence
Category
Apr
May
Jun
Jul–Aug
Sep–Oct
Nov 1–3
Phase
Post-Primary Consolidation
Organization Build
Field Deploy
Persuasion
Contrast Peak
GOTV Close
Staff & Personnel
$280K
$480K
$680K
$880K
$1,040K
$840K
Operations
$80K
$120K
$180K
$220K
$280K
$145K
Media & Comms
$80K
$120K
$350K
$580K
$1,195K
$800K*
Fundraising / G&A
$90K
$100K
$110K
$120K
$120K
$110K
Monthly Total
$530K
$820K
$1,320K
$1,800K
$2,635K
$1,895K
Build phase
Active persuasion
Peak spend / GOTV

* Nov 1–3 media includes $600K rapid response reserve converted to closing GOTV buy if unspent on defense. If reserve was deployed on defense, closing buy is reduced accordingly.

§7 — Fundraising Requirement & Cash Flow
ItemAmount
Cash on Hand (as of Feb 25, 2026)$1,794,886
Candidate Loan Outstanding($2,000,000)
Estimated Primary Close Obligations($400,000)
Estimated GE Starting Balance~$1,395,000
Total Base Budget$9,000,000
Less Starting Balance($1,395,000)
GE FUNDRAISING TARGET (Direct Raise)~$7,605,000
Minimum viable: $5.5M direct raise (Floor scenario). Base scenario requires $7.6M direct raise April–October. NRSC and aligned PAC IE supplements candidate buy but does not reduce candidate raise requirement for operations. JFC structure and Prairie 102 PAC intended to supplement direct raise.
Candidate Loan Repayment (if funds allow)$2,000,000
Net New Raise Needed (above repayment)$9,605,000
Loan repayment is secondary to operational funding. Candidate loan converts to contribution if not repaid by election day. Recommend prioritizing operations over repayment in tight cash scenarios.